The Open Forum is a creative and collaborative space for the exchange of ideas and strategies relevant to the work of higher education professionals at Community College of Denver. Any and all members of the CCD professional body are welcome and invited to read, contribute, and comment on the Open Forum. To gain access as a contributor, please send an e-mail to Troy.Abfalter@ccd.edu.

Friday, July 18, 2014

The Promise and Peril of Analytics

Nuclear power. Cloning. Social media. Space mining. Unchartered waters of  social-scientific innovation often come heralded with great promise, just as the unknown depths often hide potential peril. It seems the evolutionary heart of our species is to learn, to grow, and to explore - to accept the risk of peril in order to gain the opportunity of promise. Some ships sink, others land on new shores. So it goes.

And so it goes with analytics in higher education (see Analytics 101). There is great promise and great peril in these waters. As captains of these high seas, we must hew true to our internal compass while balancing boldness with humility.

“My concern about using data in higher education has to do with the loss of intellectual curiosity. As we meet budgets and metrics for four-year graduation rates, I’m afraid we’ll optimize and track students and become training programs rather than fertile grounds of investigation and exploration," cautions Marc Hoit, Vice Chancellor for Information Technology at North Carolina State University.

If an analytics tool makes it very clear that a student has a very low probability of succeeding in higher level math courses yet it is that student's unwavering dream to become an Engineer, what is the responsible action of faculty and staff at an open access community college?

The promise of analytics: proactive data-based needs assessments that are timely and granular; a focus on data variables of greatest impact within complicated multivariable reality; expanding reach of faculty and staff through increased efficiencies in needs assessment; organizational decisions attuned to the needs of students; assessment of student deficits for intervention as well as student strengths for development; greater persistence and completion rates of students; and personalized learning experiences.

The peril of analytics: limiting access in the name of success; treating students as data points to optimize within organizational objectives; self-fulling prophesy of statistical prediction; losing touch with the art of teaching and advising students; compounding errors within complicated data sets/algorithms; and limiting the freedom and self-discovery of higher education.

The Persistence and Completion Committee at CCD will be facilitating conversations around the campus in order to draw out the values and principles to guide implementation of analytics tools at the college. One positive starting point to these conversations is The Asilomar Convention for Learning Research in Higher Education.

 How can we leverage the promise of analytics in higher education while remaining clear-eyed about the perils?

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Guadalajara

We dream of travel; most people do, anyway.  Why?  Why is it that we want to take a step and voyage into a new world, culture, or dream?  Is it that we have a vision of another place being better?  Student’s that travel from other lands to live here in Colorado get to experience a new and different world.  Is it better?  Do they miss home?  Is this place what they thought it would be?

While I was in college I spent a semester in Guadalajara, Mexico.  Up until that point, I had not really spent much time out of United States, much less Colorado.  I spoke Spanish from text books, not real life. I definitely knew how to order a beer and say hello but I could not hold a clear conversation. Honestly, I struggled to acclimate to a new culture and daily life.  I missed some of the conveniences from the United States like drinking water out of the faucet or knowing that when using your tooth brush in the morning that the cockroaches did not feast on it while you slept.  However, there were new conveniences in Mexico that I began to appreciate, like dropping off laundry at the Lavanderia and picking it up in two days, cleaned and folded, for less than $3.00!!
My Senora traveled with us to a beach where locals frequented.  We got there by a very old school bus, baby blue and most likely missing struts and shocks. We stayed in a hotel that was not fancy and if there is an electrical code in Mexico, our lodging was definitely not up to code.  I imagined as I fell asleep in the twin bed I shared with my back to my dear friend, that my only hope was that we were not sharing the twin with the squirrel size cockroaches that we just jumped over on the uneven sidewalk outside.   It is not even fair to discuss the restrooms situation so I will not give detail to that aspect; however, as we sat on the beach and watched twenty kids playing and laughing hysterically as their parents watched and discussed life, you couldn’t help but admire the calmness, laughter and the moment of connection.    
Upon my return to the United States I had the unexpected struggle getting back into my old life.  The exposure to another world created a frustration in me when looking at, dare I say entitlements, from Americans’.   I wrestled with trying to understand why we do not have more gratitude for our blessings.  I did know now how grateful I was for the material gifts I experience as an American but was somewhat disillusioned by how whether the material rewards made us happy.  Every experience in my traveling was different, and therefore scary; yet when I reflect on my “globe-trotting” I feel so lucky to have been in another world for four months.  I learned the beauty of culture; another’s and my own, and gratitude for my experience and all of my blessings.  It is my intent to encourage students that I work with at the Community College of Denver if given the opportunity to travel, take it. 

Monday, July 14, 2014

Analytics 101

The future of higher education is analytics, and the future is now.

The analytics approach uses student data to proactively assess student needs, thereby producing actionable intelligence. Contrast analytics with the more traditional paradigm of reporting. In the latter, an organization uses data to identify results, such as the percentage of students that graduated within three years. In the analytics approach, on the other hand, an organization uses data to discern the opportunities and challenges facing a particular student at a particular time.

Numerous programs around CCD are already utilizing analytics to increase student success and enhance organizational efficiency (whether said programs realize it or not!). For example, the TRIO Student Support Services (SSS) program quantifies ten data markers to create a persistence score that feeds into a triage model of advising. TRIO SSS is also piloting a course predictor analytic that utilizes a student's previous academic performance in specific courses to discern the relative challenge of a particular course or course set in the upcoming semester.

"Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the key to success," notes a data wonk's proverb often attributed to Albert Einstein.

It is certain that higher education is swimming in an Olympic-sized pool of data. We can run report after report after report about demographics, success rates, enrollment, and much more. The siren call of analytics is search these data for variables with high explanatory and predictive power, as deciphered by contemporary social science and statistical methodologies. These data variables shine light on the path to increased student success and organizational efficiency.

Guided by data and research experts at the Higher Learning Commission, the Persistence and Completion Committee (PCC) at CCD is diligently swimming through that Olympic-sized pool of data in search of the most impactful variables of student success. Toward this end, the PCC is carrying out a social scientific inquiry using historical data from Institutional Research; student surveys of new, exiting, and graduating students; a meta-analysis of program level data from across the institution; and a qualitative analysis of anecdotal data accrued through the wisdom and experience of faculty and staff practitioners.

Identifying the impactful data variables at CCD is but the first step. Future directions include determining and implementing the information technology solutions to aggregate the data variables and process the statistical algorithms required by multivariate analyses. Then it will be onto creating intuitive and accessible analytics tools for implementation by faculty and staff practitioners.

The process will be both easier and more difficult than it sounds. Much like the game of chess, it is not that difficult to get down the basics, but the perfection of the craft will take much experimentation and learning as an institution.

The future of higher education is analytics, and the future is now.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Trust and the Leap of Faith

Charcoal clouds to the west lie low on the mountains. An acerbic sun shines harshly on the San Luis Valley, any hint of its warmth whisked quickly away by the winter wind. The highway runs directly from point A to point B, with nothing but the occasional tumbleweed blocking the view of the San Juan, Sangre de Christo and Culebra ranges.

I can see them a mile away, broken-down on the side of the road. Two people with thumbs out, a string of vehicles march past unabated. I pull over.

They come to my window, arms pulled in tight against their body, hands shoved into pockets, woefully under-dressed for the weather. Their truck broke down an hour ago, they say; they just need a ride a few miles up valley; I am the first one that stopped. The margin between subconscious and conscious - the land of biases and survival instincts - automatically takes notes and raises a few red flags.

This much is certain - they are quite cold.

Conversation lowers my guard as we roll together down the highway. A cell phone battery died; a deadbeat friend decided to go bowling in Monte Vista instead of coming to help; a girlfriend had to work until 7:00; a step-brother is living at the family shack and trying to get his life together after a stint in juvenile.

I am directed left onto a dirt road, a mile later right onto a smaller dirt road. "It is just a little further." Then left onto what would pass as a cow path if it weren't for the cattle guard blocking bovine progress. We pass by the middle of nowhere. We are ostensibly heading toward said shack.  "It is just a little further. Just a little further."

I attempt to be discreet with my cell phone at the ready. Not that there is any signal out here.

They are profuse in their gratitude, in a profanity-laced sort of way. It reminds me of some of my roughneck cousins back home; I smile. A spiritual happiness of sorts wells up, like when you realize that the world just might not be as messed up as it sometimes seems. The valley graces me with sanguine alpenglow.


Trust - it is at the core of effective relationships, communities, and organizations.

In The Speed of Trust, Stephen M.R. Covey asserts four key components of trust, from the organizational perspective. 1) Integrity to walk your talk. 2) Intent to pursue straightforward motives based on mutual benefit. 3) Capabilities that inspire confidence to get things done. 4) Results that reveal our track record and follow through.

I add a fifth key component: the leap of faith.

My decision to pick up the young men stranded in the high desert at the height of winter with the sun quickly absconding probably falls under Covey's concept of blind trust (as opposed to smart trust). It involved an unidentifiable risk of the unknown. But I took this leap of faith with great intentionality. Sometimes a leader needs to risk one's sense of self in order to prove that greater ideals still animate our higher potential, regardless of the naysayers (and they are many).

Now I don't advise that you pick up hitchhikers on a daily basis, metaphorical or otherwise. My episode was a moment in time in which the stars aligned to provide me with a test of my own personal integrity to walk the talk. But I do advise that you take smaller leaps of faith frequently to demonstrate the trust that you place in your family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues.

The realist in my office likes to protest: "But Troy - what if they take advantage of you?!?"

Some have and others will. But far more have graciously honored the trust I have offered them. I am certain that exposing my flank engenders reciprocity of trust in the great majority. And I wager that each act of vulnerable trust nudges the great needle of the universe toward a fuller realization of our true potential.

I am as strategic as they come. In fact, my Meyers-Briggs preference is colloquially known as Mastermind. By default, then, I am prone toward smart trust, to weighing the pros and cons of an action, to treat trust as a sort of leadership capital to be expended along the lines of a budget. But we cannot conflate trust with strategy masquerading as trust. We must take the leap of faith - though the naysayers will say "ill-advised" - in order to enliven the true bond of trust.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Commencement and Discontent

I am a commencement banner assistant. On that wonderful evening in May, I march in with the graduates of Community College of Denver. The energy is electric! I hear stories of success from the students. I give high fives to grandmas in the front row as we proceed into the arena. I cheer my lungs out when TRIO graduates walk across the stage. It is hard to be anything but beaming!

Yet, despite my joy, I cannot escape the discontent. It subtly yet darkly seeps into the perimeter of my vision. The empty space surrounding the graduates manifests the void, the 85% of students that start at Community College of Denver yet fail to reach this penultimate moment. Where are they, if not here tonight?

I know that student success takes multiple shapes and forms, and graduation is not the sole marker. Students swirl through higher education as their life ebbs and flows. There are things both within and outside of the control of the student and the institution.

Yet, the void stirs indignation.

I know the minimal graduation rates are not due to lack of effort on behalf of our students, faculty, and staff. I witness many a determined student putting in long hours at school only to work the night shift. I observe faculty bending over backwards to facilitate student learning. And I see staff deploying expansive and intentional support programs.

Yet, the void stirs indignation.

I know that CCD opens doors and takes risks on students even when the road is long and the hill steep. I am wary of completion strategies that limit access. I believe that any time spent in higher education, even if incomplete, benefits the student and society.

Yet, the void stirs indignation.

Therefore, it is time to take our effort to the next level of sophistication.The mission of the Persistence and Completion Committee (PCC) is to assesses CCD-specific data to drive persistence and completion strategies while fostering a collaborative institutional culture and advocating more universally for improved measures of student success.

The PCC is a cross-functional team with a robust five year plan and the guidance of data mentors at the Higher Learning Commission. We are using institutional data, a longitudinal study, program and department level data, and student surveys to identify the key markers of success and most significant barriers to completion.

Our major deliverables include three meta-analysis reports, learning analytics tools, guided college-wide conversations, and publication of findings and successes to a wider audience.

More to come. For our students!